District 16 Incumbent Steve Holland, D-Plantersville Ben “Buddy” Coggin III, R-Nettleton
Steve Holland takes to defending, yet again, his long held House seat against an unlikely Republican opponent in Nettleton’s own, Buddy Coggin. I grew up in District 16 and other than the Holland’s and maybe to be tied with Brandon Presley, I know the people of South Lee County better than most. Even though Steve Holland is vilified and hated by most of the State Republican Party, he can do no wrong in South Lee County. As an owner of a local funeral home, Steve gets to spend time with entire families from his community every day in their most needful and intimate time: the loss of a loved one. Whether it’s playing the piano at a funeral or eating fish at the store on Friday, you can always count on Steve’s joyful smile and common folk approach to legislating to play well with those of us South of HWY 6. Note to the MS GOP: Forget it. It’s over. You might make him spend a little money, but that’s it. According to sources in Nettleton, Buddy Coggin wont even carry his home box. As it stands right now: Holland 70/30(votes against Holland, not for Coggin)
District 17 Incumbent Brian Aldridge, R-Tupelo Michael Stafford, R-Okolona
One of the biggest surprises, in my mind anyway, was the absence of Democratic opposition to either Brian Aldridge or Jerry Turner in West and North Lee County. This lack of Democrat interest in these seats can be attributed to the recent swing of those districts to the GOP following the realignment of the seats after the 2000 census. With so many of the former Tupelo residents moving West and North, these two boxes(17 &18) have become increasingly safe for the GOP, as I found out in 2003. Both Brian Aldridge and Jerry Turner have been dependable Republicans and have not done anything to lose the support of either the powerful local business lobby or GOP loyalist. Michael Stafford, who ran previously against Brian, will try again in this year’s Republican primary. The word from the Stafford camp is that Aldridge is vulnerable with his Tupelo Republican base and feels they are looking for “another option” from within the Republican field. Stafford, on paper, makes a formidable opponent as he is a purple heart recipient, war veteran, who lost his leg while serving in Iraq. However, Brian has dealt with this before in 2007 and should be able to count on much of the support he had last time. It will be interesting to see if Stafford is able to swing any prominent donors to support him against the Republican incumbent. One thing about Brian, he is a tireless campaigner, who, along with his father and mother, spend countless hours going door to door in his district. He should have a marked advantage in fundraising, so I see this one following a similar pattern as the last election. As it stands right now: Aldridge 55-45 (Wildcard: Stafford’s ability to tap into the Tea Party and GOP Base)
District 18 Incumbent Jerry Turner, R-Baldwyn (No opponent, congratulations brother Turner)
District 19 Incumbent Mark DuVall, D-Mantachie Jamie Franks, D-Mooreville Brad Underwood, D-Mantachie Randy Boyd, R-Mantachie Alan Sheffield, R-Mantachie
With the announcement that Billy McCoy will not seek reelection, Jamie Franks qualification for House District 19 catapulted him back to the top of the GOP’s most hated(or feared) candidates this fall. This very well could be the most interesting race in North MS, especially in the Democratic Primary. The major story lines going into this one are that Mark Duvall is considered vulnerable by many and Jamie Franks is intent on getting back to Jackson. Not discounting Mr. Underwood, the Franks and Duvall battle could get nasty, to the delight of Mr. Randy Boyd(R) who will be waiting for the final leg. People will be watching to see if recent negative press concerning Jamie Frank’s personal life will spill over into this election. How much will Duvall make of the unfortunate events that happened in Jamie’s life and how negative will Jamie be responding in kind? This has all the makings of a primary so bloodied that it could leave the favored Democratic nominee vulnerable to a well financed Republican in the general election. Many think if Randy Boyd could win, it would of been last time against Duvall for the open seat in 2007. I haven’t heard many positive comments about Boyd’s campaign so far, nor about Alan Sheffield’s(R), but am sure that the GOP machine will target this seat for the sole reason they want to keep Jamie Franks north of HWY 82.
Jamie Franks is one of the best stump speakers I have ever heard and he is very good at door to door campaigning, especially with the help of his father, Roger Franks, who is incredibly respected in his district. Even though recent defections of GOP voters from Tupelo into the Oak Hill and Mooreville boxes, this seat is still relativlely rural and stretches through small communities like Ryan’s Well and as far north as Tishimingo. No one knows this district better than Jamie Franks. Duvall has done little, save his attempt to keep COL Reb at Ole Miss, to endure himself with these voters, which plays into a Frank’s victory.
With Billy McCoy’s departure and many other retirements, the North MS Hill Country is losing a great number of voices and influence. Jamie hopes to convince the voters of District 19 to send him down to Jackson to fill that void. As it stands right now: Jamie Franks wins the primary 52/40/8 (Franks/Duvall/Underwood) and wins the general 52/48. (Wildcard: financial and negative campaign impact of the Democratic Primary and GOP interest in Boyd’s chances)
