The most interesting battle looming in North MS this year for me is the District Attorney’s race in North MS. John Young has been the District Attorney in 1st District for over 30 years and is facing off for round 2 against Tupelo City Prosecutor, Trent Kelly, in a rematch of the 2007 general election. In that election, Young defeated Kelly with a comfortable margin, even though Trent had a surprising result in Lee County, the most populous county in the district. This time around Trent Kelly has switched parties becoming a Republican, which based on the recent shift in North MS to dependably “Red”(Republican), makes this “the race to watch” in 2011.
Given the 2010 Republican landslide in historically Democratic territories such as Alcorn, Tishimingo, Itawamba and Prentiss counties, you would think that Trent Kelly would have a better shot at winning this year’s election as a Republican than he did last time as a Democrat. However, one demographic that he relied on heavily last time, especially in Lee County, was the African American Vote (BVAP), which is always largely against incumbents when dealing with law enforcement elections. Trent was able to exploit the fact that so many of the black community had been affected by what they perceived as unequal (as opposed to white citizens) convictions and sentencing for drug crimes in the area. I’m not proposing the assumption is correct, only that it is an easy target campaigning against any incumbent law enforcement officer, which the District Attorney is considered chief. However Trent switched to “R” which will be difficult to guarantee the same type of result among the BVAP this time around.
The main problem I foresee, other than it is difficult to unseat an entrenched incumbent, will be Trent’s ability, or lack thereof, to raise money among big Republican donors. Most of your surefire “R” donors up here have long been approached and/or hobnobbed with Johnny Young. As DA, you are at the top of any “bastion of the community’s” guest list for any significant event and have probably received consideration in the form of campaign contributions from most power players, not to mention have probably prosecuted an embezzler, bad check writer or common thief on their behalf. The District Attorney is one of the most powerful and respected positions as it touches every County in the district on a daily basis. They prosecute our town’s murderers, child molesters and drug dealers. Most people I know care very little about the “R” or the “D” when it comes to our prosecutors. Trent is hoping it matters this time more than in the past.
If 2007 tells us anything about this race, it is to watch for it to heat up beginning around July the 4th. The first major event for these two candidates will be at Tupelo’s July 4th celebration (held this year on July 3rd). This is one of the only events in first district which allows access to over 10,000 voters in one location. Anyone with a campaign sign will be there. In 2007, they were allowed to speak, which turned pretty hot if my memory is correct. I am not sure if there will be a speaking this year, however, you will for sure see the full campaign structure of both begin to be engaged for this event. I expect the heated messages to center around “Trent’s lack of Felony Courtroom Experience” and Johnny’s “failure to convict/indict certain criminals, crime statistics or policy differences” to be slung back and forth between the contestants as this one may turn ugly. Both Trent and Johnny are known for being strong willed and determined candidates and will staunchly defend their records.
Which brings me to another point. The incumbent has over 20 full time employees, Assistant District Attorneys, administrators, investigators and secretaries who work in the Court Houses across the district every day. They are extremely close to the clerks, their staffs, the Judges, the police and sheriff’s departments in each small town and County seat. This in-house apparatus give the incumbent a marked advantage. However, Trent being the prosecutor in the largest population center in the district, Tupelo, makes the advantage less ominous. In fact, I would say other than the die-hard “R” voters, Trent’s next solid base seems to be among Tupelo Law enforcement. As the City Prosecutor he has gotten to know and train most of the officers with the Tupelo Police Department and also serves with the narcotics units in North MS for various duties. Also, as a two time Veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and a Republican, Trent should find easy support among the American Legion/VFW crowds scattered throughout the district. The National Guard connection should not be discounted either.
All in all, the challenger has an uphill climb, but I think he is putting in the work this time to, at least, make the incumbent a little uncomfortable towards the end. This will be interesting and as I consider both men close friends and well qualified for the job, I will not make a call on this race.
